US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 23) The economy’s third-quarter strength was not the start of a renewed acceleration and we continue to expect GDP growth to weaken. Regardless, resilient economic growth has not prevented a continued... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2023) EM GDP has proven stronger than expected this year, but we think growth will weaken in the coming months and come in below consensus in 2024. Despite recent upside surprises, inflation has resumed its... 21st November 2023 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What the Chancellor won’t tell us The Chancellor will squeeze as much political juice out of Wednesday's Autumn Statement to try and regain the agenda ahead of an election next year. But he won't tell us that bigger pre-election... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Autos continuing to drive export strength Japan’s auto exports have surged this year, with volumes back at pre-pandemic levels. Its tourism sector has been doing well too as visitor numbers have returned to where they were in 2019. That... 17th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) While the US economy considerably outperformed its DM peers in Q3, we think that all advanced economies will suffer a weak Q4. High interest rates are weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe that central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are done... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to loosen, infrastructure outlays to ease Data released this week showed that Australia's labour market remained tight in October, while wage growth accelerated to a 14-year high in Q3. However, with leading indicators suggesting that the... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to buck the trend and hike again While the world’s major central banks now appear to have ended their tightening cycles, we think the Riksbank will raise its policy rate by 25bp again next week, to 4.25%, because of the strength of... 16th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Business Outlook surveys flag upside inflation risks We expect growth to slow and inflation to drop to central bank targets in major DMs in 2024. But the latest business expectations surveys on the face of it suggest that the risks to our forecasts are... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (October.) Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated again to 27.3% y/y in September, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s struggles continued to feed through. The central bank will need to respond... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and we expect that inflation will continue to... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023) The fall in CPI inflation from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October is a bit bigger than expected, brings inflation a bit closer to the rates in the US and the euro-zone, all-but confirms the Prime... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The softer 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in October makes it even less likely that the Fed will raise rates any further, and we expect a continued decline in inflation over the coming months... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
