Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in core inflation pressures in November was largely due to a jump in travel tour prices, which is likely to be quickly reversed. Nonetheless, by highlighting the continued... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures are strong but easing Last week, Christine Lagarde cited high wage growth and “domestic inflation” as reasons for the ECB to keep interest rates high. While domestic price pressures are easing, it will take several months... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 18th December 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and employment Although the flash PMIs ticked up in most cases in December, they suggest that advanced economies will start 2024 on a weak footing. Meanwhile, outside of the US, the subdued outlook for demand seems... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2023) EM GDP growth has started to weaken, and we expect activity to enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. While some economies that underperformed this year will start to recover, many of the EMs... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have been limited so far. This... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s central banks push back against rate cut bets In contrast to the Fed, the ECB pushed back this week against expectations that it would start to cut interest rates in early 2024. But we still think that a weak economy and continued declines in... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to reach 28.2% y/y in November, as the naira’s weakening continued to pass through. Aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to stabilise tackle... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
