UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the chances of the economy avoiding a contraction in Q4. But the stickiness of price pressures will... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration curbs won’t adversely dent labour supply The ongoing boom in net overseas migration to Australia is helping to take the heat out of the labour market. With public attitudes towards mass migration souring, the government announced this week... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overheating in services adds to case for tighter policy The Tankan revealed that capacity shortages in the services sector are now just as pronounced as they were before the pandemic. The survey also suggested that inflationary pressures in non... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB holding the line for now The ECB left interest rates on hold today and pushed back against expectations that it will start cutting rates as soon as March next year. However, we think inflation and GDP growth will be lower... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov. 23) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch, from 1.6% y/y in October to 1.7% y/y in November, which is still low by the standards of the past two years. And we think disinflation will resume... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Japan Chart pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth should rebound modestly in the fourth quarter but we expect it will remain soft in 2024... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 13th December 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to a slightly lower-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November, but the fresh rise in core inflation reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank is unlikely... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging Paths Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks an unusually large variation in prospects at a country level. Many of the EMs that fared... 12th December 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession and rate cuts The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 12th December 2023 · 30 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slightly stronger 0.28% m/m rise in core consumer prices in November suggests the Fed may be able to hang onto its tightening bias for a little longer, but sharper declines in inflation are still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer price inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.6% y/y in November amid a renewed rise in food price inflation and the timely daily data point to a further uptick in December. This... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
