Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee support measures buy time, but aren’t a solution The combined RBI and government package of measures to support the rupee unveiled last Friday appears to have halted the currency’s slide, but it has failed to trigger a meaningful recovery. A... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence Following his unexpected hospitalisation, Governor Ueda will miss next week's BoJ meeting. However, with inflation pressures continuing to build, there will almost certainly still be a majority in... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB falls for it again, but the euro is unlikely to benefit Faced with spiking energy prices and a slowing economy, policymakers have, in line with past ECB practice, put the emphasis on the inflation threat. If previous similar episodes are any guide, today’s... 11th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back under pressure, and relief may be uneven Inflation – and central banks’ response to it – may continue to be a thorn in the side of the bond market for a while. But, there’s still limited evidence in markets of runaway inflation expectations... 8th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Booming payrolls point to higher UST yields & stronger dollar Another robust US non-farm payrolls report means our central forecast is now that the FOMC raises the fed funds rate later this year. In turn, that implies a further rise in US Treasury yields and the... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes not a threat to the global bond rally It’s increasingly clear the Bank of Japan will resume its hiking cycle this month; on its own we don’t think that’s a big threat to global bond markets even if the central bank ultimately moves more... 4th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Peace deal still MIA; markets still don’t mind A US-Iran peace deal has, yet again, failed to materialise despite reports that one is imminent. But, in spite of another round of tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend, market participants continue to... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Japanese capital repatriation still not a big threat In light of recent market developments, we are re-sending this Update on the implications of higher Japanese yields for global markets. Despite the continued rise in JGB yields, we don’t think global... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What lies in store for Colombia’s markets post-election? Colombian assets would rally in the event of a victory for a right-wing candidate in the presidential election. Local currency bond yields appear to have the greatest scope to stage a post-election... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May 26) Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three things that might limit any re-opening relief rally The chances of a large, broad-based relief rally if a the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened have probably diminished over time, although some markets have more upside than others. One that might benefit... 25th May 2026 · 6 mins read
