US Economics Update Weaker dollar not a significant inflationary threat A weaker dollar should not compound the upward pressure on goods prices from tariffs too greatly given that the greenback remains strong by historical standards and, in any case, the pass-through of... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lack of tariff clarity may not hold back US markets Despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets – especially equities and the dollar – to rally over the rest of the year. 7th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Solid payrolls provides only limited relief for the dollar The US dollar has stabilised to a degree this week after another solid non-farm payrolls report generated a bit of a rebound in US interest rate expectations. The bigger picture remains that the... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Solid US payrolls point to rebound in UST yields & USD Another robust US payrolls report supports our view that the FOMC will remain on hold this year and, in turn, our forecast for Treasury yields and the dollar to rebound over the coming months. 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan protests exacerbating default fear Protests have erupted again in Kenya recently, bringing violence and instability, and highlighting that the government lacks the political capital to repair the fragile fiscal position. With... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Taiwan dollar? The Taiwan dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months but, for a host of reasons, the central bank seems now to be less tolerant of further currency strength. Even without... 2nd July 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We’re not convinced the dollar will keep falling The weakness in the dollar in June was easier to explain than its slide in April and May since – unlike in those months – it was accompanied by a shift in bond yields that might have been expected to... 1st July 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A decisive moment for the dollar? The US dollar has generally lost further ground this week and the DXY index currently sits at around its lowest level since February 2022. This index has now fallen by more at this stage in the year... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (June 25) China’s economy slowed in May, with US tariff starting to take a toll on exports. And while consumer spending has picked up recently, that’s largely been driven by temporary subsidies from the... 27th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset Allocation Outlook: The calm after the storm With the noise around US tariffs and war in the Middle East fading, at least for now, we think the stage is set for some further decent returns from “risky” assets – especially US equities – over the... 26th June 2025 · 27 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2025) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Mideast truce reduces one risk; FOMC schism next? The overnight announcement of a ceasefire between Israel/US and Iran has brought commodity and financial markets largely back to their pre-conflict square one. While tensions remain high and could... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
