Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We think economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will weather US tariffs relatively well. Indeed, improved terms of trade (for most) and lower inflation and interest rates should support a modest pick-up... 27th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and the latest threat to Fed independence Despite the muted reaction to the latest developments, Trump’s efforts to bend the Fed to his will are a genuine threat to US markets. 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dovish Powell & pushy Trump halt the dollar’s rebound The dollar has given back most of its gains from earlier in the week after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That leaves the... 22nd August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Jackson Hole euphoria in markets We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Where do markets stand ahead of Jackson Hole? US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in... 21st August 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Reassessing the dollar outlook ahead of Jackson Hole The dollar remains on the backfoot as expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting continue to solidify. We now expect policymakers will opt for a 25bp cut next month, and a cumulative... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What could end the yen’s puzzling weakness? We still think the Japanese yen will stage a sustained rally against the US dollar. 15th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Rally in EM financial markets slowing: what’s next? After a stellar performance in the first half of 2025, the emerging market (EM) asset rally has slowed over the past few weeks following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements. While we... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess? Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: improved competitiveness easing external strains The Egyptian pound has strengthened so far this year against the dollar, but by most measures the currency looks competitive. This will provide a boost to GDP growth over the coming years and reduce... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar on the backfoot ahead of key US inflation data The dollar has continued to edge lower in the wake of last week’s payrolls shock and a weak ISM reading this week as US interest expectations adjust lower. Given the extent of that adjustment – money... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update The case for a dollar rebound despite that payrolls shock We still expect the dollar to recover some ground over the rest of 2025 as interest rate differentials shift back in favour of the US and some of the policy uncertainty discount evident in the dollar... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: external risks no longer loom so large Indonesia’s current account position has improved markedly since the onset of the pandemic and we expect the deficit to stay small over the next couple of years. The rupiah will probably depreciate... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: current account deficit becoming a bigger concern Brazil’s current account deficit has continued to widen and is likely to reach around 4.0% of GDP by year-end. Financing this should be manageable, provided the domestic policymaking backdrop doesn’t... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
