UK government criticised for ‘over dramatic’ claims of run on the pound “If there was a risk of a run on the pound I completely missed it,” said Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics. He said the UK was “light years” away from the market conditions that surrounded... 3rd September 2024 · Financial Times
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Taking stock of the dollar ahead of payrolls The dollar has rebounded a little this week ahead of next week’s crucial US non-farm payrolls report. The incoming data this week has generally supported our view that the US is on track for a soft... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Weaker-than-expected US data and a dovish shift from the FOMC have led to a sharp fall in interest rate expectations in the US, driving the dollar down as the market turmoil at the start of August has... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2024) The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI... 27th August 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update We think Asian currencies’ rallies will slow, not stop We expect most Asian currencies to make further gains against the US dollar over time, even if their biggest rallies may now be behind them. 27th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell opens the door to further dollar weakness The dovish speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and the minutes of the FOMC Meeting in July released on Wednesday have left the greenback lower against all G10 currencies this week. This... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Rising Treasury yields may not help the dollar Even though Treasury yields have edged up today ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, we think there’s still some scope for them to rise further, as we think too much easing is now... 22nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Has the dam finally broken for Asian FX? We think Asian currencies will generally continue to rise against the US dollar over time, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as they have lately. 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mixed outlook for Brazilian financial assets Brazilian assets have generally underperformed other EMs so far this year, but measures of risk premia still appear low to us, especially given concerns over public finances. While bonds may offer... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong yen may not keep weighing on Japanese stocks While we expect the yen to rise further this year and next, we think this won’t stop Japanese stocks from making gains, even in local-currency terms. 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency calm restored ahead of Jackson Hole The dollar remains on the backfoot as calm has been restored quickly in financial markets, with this week’s key economic data providing renewed support for the “soft landing” scenario. Next week is... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
