Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on markets & the US election With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer. 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico? A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import... 29th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still on the front foot as the election(s) draw nearer The US dollar has continued to edge higher this week even in the absence of much economic data, suggesting that the gradual shift in the US election odds in favour of former president Trump continues... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies? We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Yen may rebound and weigh on Japanese equities We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms. 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the renminbi The depreciation pressure on the renminbi has abated over recent months and the USD/CNY rate is currently trading around our end-2024 target of 7.10. But with US interest rate expectations on the rise... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The election and the dollar The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets starting to price in a Trump win? With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar stays on the front foot amid mounting uncertainty Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
