Asset Allocation Update Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall While expectations for interest rates in the UK have already fallen by 40bp by end-2025 since mid-July, our projections for UK CPI inflation to remain below the 2% target for much of 2025 and 2026... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the market summer squall Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout... 15th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Is the yen carry trade unwind already over? After a turbulent start to the week, financial markets have stabilised over recent days, with asset prices and risky currencies recovering some of their sharp falls in the wake of the run of poor US... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weaker MXN no major concern for Banxico, nor for us At Banxico’s meeting yesterday, worries over the weakness in the Mexican economy outweighed concerns over the sell-off in the Mexican peso and prompted the central bank to restart its easing cycle... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent... 9th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico cuts, LatAm and the global market turmoil The Mexican peso was on a rollercoaster ride this week but, as we'd expected, Banxico placed more emphasis on the weakness in the economy as it pressed ahead with a 25bp cut (to 10.75%). And the... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the latest moves in EM currencies Heightened US recession worries have helped unwound some of the stretched positions in high-carry EM currencies, resulting in their exchange rates moving closer to their “fair values” (judging by our... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent market turmoil Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over? We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today. 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will the BCB hike rates? The minutes to last week’s central bank meeting in Brazil raised the possibility that policymakers will respond to the worsening inflation outlook by hiking interest rates. And despite the sharp shift... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
