Japan Economics Update FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Recession fears and the dollar, lessons from 2020 & 2023 Between a dovish message from the FOMC on Wednesday and a shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report today, the dollar is ending a turbulent week on the back foot. US interest rate expectations have... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities 8th August 2024, 3:00PM BST How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging... 31st July 2024 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Argentina lift capital controls? The Argentine peso’s overvaluation is becoming an increasing point of concern and attention has shifted to whether the Milei administration will lift capital controls. We think that some form of... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What a hawkish BoJ might mean for markets Today’s decision by the BoJ to tighten policy by more than discounted in the markets was accompanied by a stronger yen, higher bond yields and a rise in the stock market. However, we don’t think these... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks to interest rates have increased We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%... 31st July 2024 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The market implications of the UK’s spending shortfall The lack of much reaction on net in markets to today’s statement by the UK’s new Chancellor suggests to us that investors remain confident in the Labour Party’s commitment to fiscal discipline. But... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar keeps calm, carry trade unwinds At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
