India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6.0-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which... 25th September 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and... 25th September 2024 · 19 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed’s 50bp has the dollar down, but not necessarily out The FOMC’s decision to kick off its easing cycle with a bang has boosted risk sentiment – with the S&P 500 surging to a new all-time high – and put the US dollar on the backfoot again. However, the US... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets & Fed easing: lessons from previous easing cycles After the Fed recently delivered its first rate cut, we look at previous US loosening cycles to analyse how emerging markets assets have performed. This time around we expect the US to skirt a... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Struggling dollar may be due a break The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a. There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to... 12th September 2024 · 21 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Rate cuts and asset returns This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury... 12th September 2024 · 18 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar finding a floor post payrolls A week of decidedly mixed economic data has seen the tone shift towards risk-off across financial markets, with safe haven currencies on the front foot and the US dollar staging a bit of a recovery in... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US. 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
