Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher... 7th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term. 6th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The calm before the storm for currencies? Currency markets are ending the week broadly unchanged, on net, leaving the US dollar near a three-month high ahead of next week’s pivotal election. With polls continuing to point to a very tight race... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and market implications for EMs We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president... 1st November 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP... 31st October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 16 mins read
