Capital Daily Despite price pressures, we still expect Treasury yields to fall Despite the hot US inflation data released earlier today, we still think long-term Treasury yields will eventually fall as disinflationary pressures grow. 13th September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation may not rise, even if oil prices do US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not. 12th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB QT would exacerbate bond market risks Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP... 12th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How the stock-bond correlation may be shifting We suspect the positive correlation between the prices of US equities and Treasuries may fade over the next year or so, and perhaps turn somewhat negative. 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback edges lower ahead of US CPI data Today’s sell-off in the US dollar has left it little changed against most major currencies since last Friday. The catalysts for today’s decline, from fresh multi-decades highs, seem to be the ongoing... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think Gilts will rally over the rest of this year We think 10-year Gilts will recover some ground over the rest of this year as investors pare back expectations for tightening. 7th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further despite RBA hikes Even though we expect the RBA to continue to hike rates aggressively, we don’t think that will stop the Australian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. 6th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EZ peripheral spreads will rise further We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Euro under renewed pressure ahead of ECB decision While the dollar eased back a little after today’s US non-farm payrolls report led to a reversal in US interest rate expectations, news that the Nordstream pipeline may not reopen as planned has seen... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury and bund sell off may be mostly over While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their... 2nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour force could be over the hill already The ongoing decline in the size of Japan’s adult population won’t look quite so worrying when the recent revival of immigration starts to be factored in. But the underlying trend has worsened over the... 2nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
