Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s resilience to last Although the renminbi’s strength may persist for a bit longer, we still think the currency will weaken against the US dollar over the next year or so. 15th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily How far can the dollar rise? After its most recent surge on the back of last week’s strong payrolls report, this week’s exceptionally high inflation reading, and hawkish comments from some FOMC members, the DXY index has now... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar has continued to grind higher against major currencies following the release of US inflation data on Wednesday, with the DXY index reaching its strongest level in over a year. Recent... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Why we still aren’t convinced the S&P 500 is in a bubble Even though the S&P 500 has risen by almost another 25% or so this year, we are still not persuaded that the US stock market is in a bubble that is about to burst. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese government bond yields to decline In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond yield will decline over the next couple of years as... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Bond market volatility may be taste of things to come in FX We think that the recent pick-up in bond market volatility will persist and that volatility in currency markets will also rise further as uncertainty around the economic outlook and monetary policy... 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market? US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation compensation revisited US Treasury yields rose sharply following the release of US CPI inflation figures, which showed that inflation reached 6.2% y/y in October, reversing some of their recent falls. But, despite the pick... 10th November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Property sector woes not the only headwind for China’s equities The weakness in China’s real estate sector is only one of a number of reasons why we think that the country’s equities will remain under pressure over the coming years 9th November 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates We expect the yen to weaken a bit more against the US dollar as we think that government bond yields in the US will resume their rise before long. 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the puzzling behaviour of Treasuries Last week’s behaviour of the Treasury market is puzzling for two reasons. First, a further paring back of expectations for tighter monetary policy following the Fed’s mid-week meeting might reasonably... 8th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the post-payrolls fall in Treasury yields will continue The decline in long-dated Treasury yields following the publication of the latest US employment report today is hard to justify, and we do not expect it to last. 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies & sterling drops on confusing BoE messaging After another week of wild swings in short-term interest rate markets, the US dollar is ending the week stronger against most major currencies. On a trade-weighted basis it is now near its strongest... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
