UK Economics Six key calls and three risks for the UK in 2022 Our new forecasts for 2022 envisage CPI inflation rising further than most expect to a peak of 7% and the Bank of England raising interest rates quicker, from 0.25% now to 1.25% by the end of the year... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect higher US yields to lead to more weakness in the yen The Japanese yen fell to a 5-year low against the US dollar earlier this week, following a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. While the yen has rebounded slightly since then, we think that further... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key calls for the euro-zone in 2022 We think euro-zone GDP growth will be lower than most anticipate this year, at around 3.5%, while inflation will come down towards 2% by year-end allowing the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged and... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations and rising yields more worrisome than Omicron After a somewhat turbulent end to 2021, most “risky” assets have started the new year on the front foot and “safe” government bond yields have risen sharply. Provided that concerns about the pandemic... 4th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think PBOC easing will push down CGB yields While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to... 22nd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of a dismal year for EM equities Even if virus concerns abate, we doubt that 2022 will see a spectacular turnaround for emerging market equities. 21st December 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We doubt that 2022-23 will be as rewarding as 2021 2021 is on course to be a relatively good year for most investors. Admittedly, it has not been entirely without its casualties. Equities in China and much of Latin America, for example, have struggled... 21st December 2021 · 11 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Omicron and the latest fall in the stock market If worries about the spread of Omicron abated, stock markets would probably recover some of the ground they’ve lost recently. Nonetheless, we wouldn’t expect that to mark the beginning of another big... 20th December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key questions for currency markets in 2022 Four central themes in currency markets this year have been the US dollar’s steady grind higher since June, the underperformance of other safe-haven currencies, the remarkable stability of the USD/CNY... 20th December 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Game of two halves ends with a whimper, not a bang This week’s much-anticipated round of central bank policy announcements made only limited impact on currency markets, which for the most part are broadly unchanged on the week. Indeed, despite the... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
