India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily PM’s resignation not a panacea for UK markets UK markets have, on balance, not moved much in response to news of PM Truss’ resignation. We suspect that investors need more visibility on Truss’s successor and the implications for fiscal policy... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Will the UK’s new PM still be faced with a risk premium? Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update We expect mediocre long-run returns from Chinese equities Although relatively low equity valuations sometimes point to a greater chance of outsized returns over longer time horizons, we do not think that this is the case for China’s stock market. After all... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: China’s Congress, more yen weakness, hawkish central banks and more 27th October 2022, 9:00AM BST Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories.
Event ANZ Drop-In: When will Australian inflation peak? 26th October 2022, 7:00AM BST Economists from our ANZ and Global Markets teams were online shortly after the release of Q3 CPI data for a 20-minute briefing in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues, incl
Event Euro-zone Drop-In: Deeper recession and more persistent inflation 25th October 2022, 3:00PM BST
Capital Daily We think credit spreads may widen further as growth falters Although corporate credit spreads have risen quite a lot this year, we think they will increase further as economic growth in several major economies disappoints expectations. 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Tide is turning within the MPC The RBI continued frontloading policy tightening in its late-September meeting with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) but communications since then suggest that some MPC members are ready... 19th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think valuation will prove a tailwind for the yen before long The yen’s latest weakness has pushed its valuation well below our estimates of “fair value”, which suggests to us it is likely to strengthen substantially over the medium term. We are resending this... 18th October 2022 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Remaining Gilt risk premia may be slow to disappear While the latest change of plans by the UK government takes, in our view, a lot of the upside risk out of Gilt yields, we suspect stubborn risk premia remain that may take some time to fade completely... 18th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Gilt yields will perform a full Truss-style U-turn While today’s announcements by new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have been welcomed by the Gilt market, we don’t expect the 10-year Gilt yield to fall too much further in the near term. 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Another intervention wouldn’t reverse yen weakness With the yen currently trading just below 149, it now appears to be a question of when and not if policymakers step in again. But as recent weeks and the Asian Financial Crisis have shown, such... 17th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily A further fiscal retreat in the UK seems only partly discounted We think that we could see a small boost for both Gilts and sterling if the UK government is forced to capitulate further on its plans for fiscal policy. 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar grinds higher as CPI reinforces Fed hawkishness The dollar is ending another volatile week in FX markets a touch higher against most major currencies. The market reaction to the upside surprise in September’s US CPI data (released yesterday) was... 14th October 2022 · 9 mins read
