US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest disinflation will continue The December JOLTS data show a continued painless normalisation in the labour market – with job openings on a downward trend, layoffs unusually low and wage growth set for a sharp slowdown. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How Treasury supply (and demand) might affect yields The US Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates pushed long-dated yields down, and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday may add to positive sentiment. But we think that a poor fiscal... 30th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023) The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. 29th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023) The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Inflation: Mission accomplished? We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a... 26th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily US economy not threatening to prick a stock market bubble Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much. 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Dec.) The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend set to intensify A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Dec. 2023) New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak. 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q4) Although GDP growth came in hotter than expect in the fourth quarter, underlying inflation continued to slow, with annualised core PCE inflation running at the 2% target in the fourth quarter. The... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read