Chief Economist's Note Central bankers should keep perspective as newsflow tests nerves Developments over the past week or so have put a dent in the until-recently widespread belief that inflation was firmly in retreat and that central banks had a clear path to cutting rates. Bond yields... 12th February 2024
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bond vigilantes fiddle, as budget burns New projections released by the CBO this week show that although the Federal budget deficit is expected to be a bit smaller than previously assumed, it remains on an unsustainable path. Moreover, with... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices - Annual Revision to Seasonal Factors 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update US credit spreads could fall further despite high bankruptcies US corporate credit spreads have continued to shrink even as bankruptcies have soared but, while they are now fairly narrow, we think there is still some scope for them to tighten further over the... 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Another challenging year for first-time buyers The recent fall in the homeownership rate revealed by the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is unlikely to reverse given still-high mortgage costs. The survey also provided more evidence in support of our... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a delay to Fed rate cuts spells higher EM yields We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Strong payrolls unlikely to reignite wage growth The strength of payroll employment growth over the past two months is likely to be a blip rather than the start of a renewed acceleration and the wider evidence still points to a further slowdown in... 8th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jan. 2024) The average mortgage rate in January was unchanged from the month before, but that didn’t prevent mortgage applications for home purchase rising for a third consecutive month. And with interest rates... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: January CPI and the timing of the start of Fed easing 1707836400 What does the recent data flow and Jerome Powell’s pushback mean for the timing of the first Fed rate cut? How quickly and easily will core inflation get back to target?
Capital Daily Another mini banking crisis looks unlikely Although last week’s renewed underperformance of US regional banks and equity office REITs sparked fears of another mini banking crisis, a fairly steady decline in the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions normalising The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that banks have put last year’s SVB regional bank crisis firmly behind them and, with long-term interest rates markedly lower than the... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at... 5th February 2024 · 5 mins read