Emerging Europe Economics Update Early signs that Russia’s recovery is getting back on track Russia’s economy slowed over the second half of 2017, but the latest data for January suggest that conditions have improved at the start of this year. We expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2017) Russian annual GDP data for 2017, which showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a slowdown in growth to 1.0% y/y in Q4, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. However, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s activity data for Russia suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole may have slowed to a disappointing 1.0% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. But conditions improved right at the end of last year... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Too soon to write off Russia’s recovery Russia’s economy lost steam in the second half of 2017, but we expect the recovery to get back underway this year as the drag from lower oil production fades and demand strengthens. We continue to... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.5% y/y last month means the central bank is now all but certain to continue its easing cycle next week. We expect a 25bp cut to 8.00%. Inflation has probably... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown Russia’s participation in the OPEC deal to cut oil output, which was rolled over last night, has so far had only a modest impact on the economy and can account for just 10% of the slowdown in annual... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s activity data for October suggest that growth remained soft at the start of Q4, at around 1.7% y/y. October data for Poland (also released today) were much stronger and suggest that GDP... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet We don’t find compelling evidence to support the argument that the slowdown in Russia’s economy in Q3 was the result of mounting capacity constraints. In contrast, our view is that there is still a... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3) Russian GDP growth in Q3 was softer than expected, at 1.8% y/y, and we have revised down our growth forecast for 2017 as whole as a result (to 1.8%). However, we expect growth to pick up next year and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The fall in Russian inflation to 2.7% y/y in October means another 25bp cut at the central bank’s Board meeting in December is highly likely. Inflation has probably reached a trough, but we expect the... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hints at larger easing cycle The Russian central bank statement, which accompanied today’s decision to cut the policy rate by 25bp, suggests that policymakers have become increasingly confident that inflation will remain low and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole probably came in at around 2.0% y/y, which would be a little weaker than in Q2 (2.5% y/y). But the economy remains in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong returns in prospect for Moscow offices The Moscow office market is showing signs of greater balance. With the potential for rental growth, and further falls in prime yields, several years of double-digit total returns could be on the cards... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
