Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector? Early signs suggest that Russia’s economic recovery may have stalled in the second quarter due largely to renewed weakness in the construction sector. This seems to be the result of financial problems... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) Today’s weaker-than-expected Russian activity data for May provide early signs that the fall in GDP in Q2 may be larger than in Q1. Consumer-facing sectors continued to bear the brunt of Russia’s... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC resumes easing cycle The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bp to 10.50% today was a close one but, having decided to start easing policy once again we think that interest rates... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia The EU’s sanctions on Russia are due to expire in July and, while it is most likely that they will be renewed, it is possible that this comes alongside a broad timetable for scaling them back subject... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation remained unchanged at 7.3% y/y in May for the third consecutive month, but it looks like it is on course to edge up over the coming months. As a result, we think that the central... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2016) The shallower-than-expected 1.2% y/y fall in Russia’s GDP in the first quarter confirms that the acute phase of the crisis is now over. And the annual growth rate could return to the positive... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off The statement by the Russian central bank following its decision to leave the one-week repo rate on hold today was dovish, but less so than what the markets seem to have expected. The Council’s... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity The Russian government’s use of its oil funds to finance the budget deficit will cause the monetary base to expand and is likely to push the banking sector from having a deficit of liquidity to a... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russia’s activity data for March were weaker than in February, as expected, but the broad trend is still that the slump in the economy is easing. GDP probably contracted by around 2.0% y/y over Q1 as... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4) The release of Russian Q4 GDP data today provides further evidence that the worst of the recession is now behind us. And monthly activity data suggest that the slump in activity continued to ease in... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rebound leads market rally in Emerging Europe Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their earlier losses this month. The Russian ruble has been the region’s star performer, posting the largest gains among all EM... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in capital outflows from Russia? Capital outflows from Russia have slowed markedly in recent quarters and the nature of these outflows has changed too – they are now driven by Russian companies repaying their external debts, rather... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) The improvement in last month’s Russian activity data was flattered by working day effects due to the leap year. But even so, the figures provide further evidence that the economy has passed the worst... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank continues to strike cautious note The statement by Russia’s central bank following its decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged earlier today was decidedly cautious and reinforces our view that any policy easing is only... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The usual raft of activity data for January showed that, following an awful December, conditions in the Russian economy improved at the start of this year. Encouragingly, there are early signs that... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
