Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to a more than four-year high of 5.7% y/y in February is likely to be followed by another increase in March which poses a serious challenge to the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CBR closes the door on further easing Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 4.25% today and the hawkish message about pro-inflationary risks means that there is no room for further easing. The CBR set the... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR closing the door on its easing cycle The central bank of Russia (CBR) left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected today but the accompanying communications delivered a clear hawkish shift. With headline inflation likely to... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak recovery expected in Moscow office rents Moscow offices rents were under pressure even before the onset of COVID-19 and a further steep decline is expected this year. Domestic economic factors will be more supportive in 2021, but this is... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2020) The stronger-than-expected improvement in Russian GDP growth to -3.6% y/y in Q3 means that the economy has come through this crisis in better shape than many other EMs. But the recovery lost a lot of... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle will resume before long The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate at 4.25% today suggests that inflationary concerns are preventing further easing for now. But the communications reinforce our view that... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) There were few positives in September’s batch of Russian activity data as the contraction in retail sales deepened and the recovery in the manufacturing sector stalled. The rise in virus cases and... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Russian inflation edged up to 3.7% y/y in September and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months, which is likely to prompt the central bank to pause its easing cycle at its... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s coronavirus outbreak The surge in coronavirus cases in Russia looks set to trigger tighter restrictions in the coming months. But we doubt that policymakers will re-introduce a full lockdown. After all, it would be... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August show that the economic recovery continued throughout the middle of Q3 as mining output recovered strongly, but activity in the retail and manufacturing... 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% today is likely to mark a pause rather than an end to its easing cycle. The central bank will maintain its cautious... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Digging into Russia’s consumer recovery The rebound in Russian consumer spending since April has been supported by a more active fiscal policy stance than we had expected. Although the pace of growth will soften, spending is likely to... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run The Russian ruble looks set to lose further ground over the coming months as geopolitical tensions and the threat of international sanctions ratchet up. We expect the ruble to drift towards 80/$ by... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in August and we think that it will edge up a bit further over the coming months. This shouldn’t trouble the central bank too much, but the threat of sanctions and... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
