The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. Although the Treasury today increased the auction size …
1st November 2023
The September JOLTS data suggest that the labour market is loosening at a slightly slower pace, but still point to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead. There is little support for the idea that resilient activity growth in the third quarter will lead to a …
The PMI surveys released so far for China weakened in October with the manufacturing PMIs falling back into contractionary territory. We think China’s demand for commodities will be supported by further fiscal stimulus over the next few months, but a …
One question we have received frequently from clients is what lessons Israel’s previous wars offer when thinking about the effects on its economy from the conflict today. While no two events are the same, one lesson is that the near-term hit to economic …
South Africa’s finance minister reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal consolidation in today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) but, even so, debt is now projected to peak at a much higher level than previously envisaged. A potential new fiscal …
Office-based jobs at a stand-still for first time in three years September’s employment growth was below the average for 2023 thus far, recording 0.4% 3m/3m across our 30 covered metros once seasonally-adjusted. Meanwhile, office-based jobs remained …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Manufacturing recovery fizzling out The surprise slump in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.7 in October, from 49.0, suggests the recent recovery in factory-sector activity is …
The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt ratio is likely to increase rather than to fall in the …
China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This includes providing greater credit support to …
There has been a broad-based fall in foreign direct investment flows into the emerging world that, outside China, is mostly the result of a slowdown in global growth. FDI flows should stabilise over the coming year and, over the medium term, we think they …
PMI signals weak start to Q4 South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a fresh fall again in October, signalling that the economy made a poor start to Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish over the coming quarters as weak demand conditions outweigh any …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Another mixed bag of PMIs The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Early sign of manufacturing activity losing momentum The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the …
House prices confound expectations The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at present, stretched …
With wage growth set to strengthen further over the coming year, we think the Bank of Japan will soon have sufficient confidence in the sustainability of higher inflation to end negative interest rates . The Bank of Japan has been arguing that wage growth …
The October PMIs for Emerging Asia generally dropped back further inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory levels and weaker foreign demand are set to curtail …
House price rally will slow in earnest With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. In seasonally-adjusted terms, house prices across …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. RBNZ to hold the line as labour market continues to slacken With the balance of demand and supply in the labour market showing further improvement, we’re more convinced than ever …
31st October 2023
Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and fiscal and monetary policy will need to stay tight. Our …
As is often the case, it is hard to know just what to make of the Bank of Japan’s latest policy announcement. Our sense is that the resulting rise in Japanese government bond yields is more likely to endure than the sharp fall in the yen. To recap, the …
EU ETS will help Tusk meet his climate goals Climate policy will be a key battleground in the upcoming slew of elections over the next 18 months and the climate stakes were high in Poland ahead of its recent election. Note that coal accounts for more than …
An energy shock caused by an escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel would have obvious similarities with that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But we think that ECB policymakers would be less worried about the “second-round” effects on …
Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure on “risky” assets but favouring “safe” ones. But when the economic environment improves, “riskier” assets will rebound, with equities further boosted by enthusiasm …
Morocco’s automobile sector has gone from strength to strength in the past decade, with production now rivalling some producers in Central and Eastern Europe. With investment from major global automobile firms increasing and supply chains deepening, the …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) …
Surge in house prices continues Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices will soften over the …
Sharper slowdown in wage growth still lies ahead The slightly stronger 1.1% increase in the employment cost index in the third quarter is another sign that the earlier rapid easing in labour market conditions may be fading, but the forward-looking …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The surprise stagnation in August and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in September imply that third-quarter GDP probably edged down by 0.1% annualised, marking …
Another solid quarter, but slowdown awaits Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US weighs on …
The dollar stayed strong in October but failed to add much to its broad-based rally since July. We think elevated US yields are likely to keep the greenback on the front foot, particularly if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate. However, while we …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation falling as economy flat-lines The euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and the continued weakness of the surveys at the start of Q4 suggests that the outlook is poor. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Economy narrowly avoids another contraction Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water in Q3, underperforming most expectations. A jump in investment and a pick-up in …
Recession deepens on the back of voluntary oil production cut Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and …
Sharp fall in inflation, another interest rate cut incoming The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). The decline from …
Czech economy flirting with recession again The 0.3% q/q decline in Czech GDP in Q3 was worse than expected, and suggests that the economy will probably contract over the year as a whole. This weakness in the economy also increases the likelihood that the …
Economic growth in Taiwan accelerated sharply in Q3, driven primarily by a jump in exports. However, we don’t think the strength of the recovery will last – we expect growth to slow over the next two quarters due to renewed weakness in external demand and …
The Bank of Japan today de facto abolished Yield Curve Control and we think policymakers will call time on negative interest rates as soon as January . A casual reading of today’s statement would suggest that policy settings were left unchanged: the Bank …
Narrowly avoiding recession The slowdown in French GDP growth from an upwardly-revised +0.6% q/q in Q2 to only 0.1% in Q3 (see Chart 1) was a little better than the consensus and our own forecast (+0.1% and -0.2% q/q) and means GDP was 1.8% larger than …
RBA will hike by 25bp next week as inflation and labour market continue to run hot But there will be a high bar for additional tightening further down the road As the economy takes a turn for the worse, rate cuts still likely in Q2 2024 With inflation …
We are resending this publication because it was incorrectly sent as a Japan Economics Update. Note: We'll be discussing h ow much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies in our Asia Drop-in today, 31st October. Register here to join the …
Note: We'll be discussing h ow much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies in our Asia Drop-in today, 31st October. Register here to join the online briefing. Bank of Japan will tighten policy further next year The Bank of Japan today de …
This page was first published on Tuesday 31 st October, covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Wednesday 1 st November, and the Caixin services and composite PMI on Friday 3 rd November. Note: We discussed h …
Note: We'll be discussing h ow much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies in our Asia Drop-in today, 31st October. Register here to join the online briefing. This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. …
