Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share of UK-born employment starts to rise again. The risk …
25th April 2024
A later start to Fed rate cuts than we anticipated will push the fall in mortgage rates and recovery in activity into the second half of the year. But as we think that the Fed Funds rate will eventually be cut by more than markets have currently priced …
GDP growth slows, but underlying momentum remains strong First-quarter GDP growth came in weaker-than-expected at 1.6% annualised, the weakest quarterly gain in almost two years, but the strong 3.1% gain in final sales to private domestic purchasers …
Stalling privatisation drive a blot on Egypt’s reforms Having previously pledged to reinvigorate its state privatisation drive, Egyptian officials have significantly pared back their targets. This could remain the one demerit on its IMF report card. …
Hawkish message as rates remain on hold Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the tightening …
Spanish house prices have risen 5% over the last two years despite rising interest rates. The relative affordability of houses in Spain is the main reason that the market remains strong, but the resilience of foreign demand for houses and a rising …
House price growth in London remains negative according to the ONS, but timelier measures of house prices and sentiment suggest that activity has picked up and prices are regaining momentum. The recent slight increase in mortgage rates may temper the …
The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month has generally come alongside an upward revision to interest rate expectations across Emerging Europe. However, we think analysts may still be overestimating how far …
GDP growth in Korea rose sharply in Q1 but we don't expect this strength to last. Weak global growth is set to weigh on exports in the near term while tight monetary and fiscal policy will curtail domestic demand. Today’s figures show that the economy …
Even if the US dollar stays strong against most currencies this year, we think that much of the broad-based weakness in EM (emerging market) FX has run its course. While some EM central banks may now slow their easing cycles, major shifts in policy are …
24th April 2024
India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data suggest that the strength of economic activity has continued through to the eve of the election. Headline inflation is grinding back to the RBI’s 4% …
All-property yields have been broadly stable since the start of the year. Higher-than-expected interest rates mean yields may see a further small rise over the next few months, but we still think they will flatten out by end-24. However, with no yield …
Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters. But growth over the year as a whole will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process is entering a slower phase and the delay in rate cuts …
Hot inflation data dash hopes for rate cuts anytime soon Will take longer for the Fed to get “greater confidence” about path to 2% inflation. Nevertheless, cuts in 2024 still plausible The recent run of stronger inflation and activity data has …
You can use the "Table of Contents" feature, found on the top right of the webpage, to navigate this publication quickly. Summary: The rally in equities over the past year or so, driven in no small part by hype around AI, has left stock markets looking …
The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require policymakers to remain committed to reforms. We’re most …
Retail sales growth disappointing The surprise fall in retail sales in February and the apparent stagnation in March means they had a disappointing first quarter. That reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates at the next …
First-quarter business equipment declined The rise in durable goods orders in March was mainly due to the volatile transport component, with core and underlying capital goods orders only inching up. While underlying capital goods shipments rose last …
Rise in inflation puts the final nail in the coffin for a May rate cut The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.6% y/y in the first half of April, coming alongside the delay to rate cuts in the US (and fall in the peso), mean that Banxico is all …
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy reforms have injected a welcome dose of momentum back into the country’s policy shift. But the minutes to the latest MPC meetings also suggest that a slowdown in growth could prompt a (premature) shift …
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year. There will be bigger macro consequences from …
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in the near-term, structural headwinds will start to drag …
In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%) and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. But there is a good chance this will be a case of “one and …
While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We suspect EMs will be less likely than DMs to turn to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Signs of life for the German economy The rise in the German Ifo in April, together with the jump in the Composite PMI in the same month, suggests that the German economy may be …
Hike aimed at supporting the currency In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. However, with …
The latest activity data suggest that GDP contracted at the start of the year, but a rebound is very likely over the coming quarters. Goods inflation should keep slowing rapidly, but strong wage growth will keep inflation above the BoJ’s target for most …
Upside inflation surprise bodes poorly for rate cuts With price pressures proving inordinately resilient, there is little scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start loosening policy in the near future. The 1.0% q/q rise in consumer prices in Q1 was …
Although the BLS’s new tenant rent index has overstated the speed of the slowdown in shelter inflation, the leading indicators remain unanimous in their message that the slowdown is still coming. Despite some larger monthly rises in core goods and …
23rd April 2024
The latest e-commerce statistics suggest that the pandemic has left US online sales on a permanently higher trend. That will be bad news for retail rents generally, though the detailed data also hint that there may have been a return to physical shopping …
We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further. In contrast to the weaker-than-expected PMI data out of the US today, PMIs for …
The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth picked up in most advanced economies at the start of Q2. But stronger services activity risks keeping price pressures elevated in some DMs. The flash PMIs for April suggest that economic activity picked up in …
Largest increase in new home sales in over a year The large uptick in new home sales in March is consistent with our above-consensus prediction that sales of new homes will climb to 750,000 by year end. The 8.8% rise in new home sales in March took them …
If sustained, the recent rises in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields may mean that the Chancellor has only around £5bn of fiscal headroom, down from £8.9bn in the March Budget, with which to fund further tax cuts before the next election. …
Prime office rent growth in Scandinavia is expected to moderate in the coming years as soft demand and rising supply push up vacancy. But having trailed the other Scandinavian cities in 2023, we think that tighter supply could help rent growth in Oslo …
This publication has been updated with additional analysis since the post-meeting press statement and press conference. MNB shifting down the monetary easing gears The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to opt for …
The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said, many of the factors that have helped to flip the …
Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so. With little sign of an end to conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, how should investors be gauging the influence …
A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall throughout the rest of this decade. All this supports our view …
Germany is in crisis. Even as near-term drags on growth are set to fade, its economy is being buffeted by a host of forces that threaten to leave it struggling through the rest of this decade. How will an aging population, high energy costs and a …
South Africa’s upcoming general election looks likely to result in a much more fragmented parliament and mark a shift to coalition government. The lesson from elsewhere in the emerging world is that this can often lead to a worsening fiscal position. …
The rapid expansion in China’s manufacturing capacity of green technology is a symptom of the country’s investment-led growth model and so there is no reason to believe that any change in tack is imminent. Against this backdrop, western governments will …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Easing services prices may encourage BoE to cut rates in the coming months Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at …
Weak end to Q1 Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 3.0% …
Euro-zone coming out of recession The bigger-than-expected increase in the Composite PMI for April suggests that the euro-zone is coming out of recession, but this will not prevent the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. The increase in the euro-zone …
The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year. While we are still waiting for the full 2023 GDP data from the UAE, we can piece together the data from Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Limited scope for tax cuts March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity strong on eve of election The flash composite PMI reading for April suggests that the strength of economic activity over the past few quarters has continued through to …
