The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to fall within the Board's target range of 2-3% next year. But with the Bank intent on observing more consistent progress before altering its monetary policy stance, we are sticking with our forecast that they will only cut rates from Q2 2025 onwards.
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