After a stellar performance in the first half of 2025, the emerging market (EM) asset rally has slowed over the past few weeks following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements. While we still expect EM assets to eke out decent returns, we …
14th August 2025
The solid pace of economic growth in Spain over the next couple of years will continue to support robust rates of industrial rental growth. However, we don’t think that will be enough to justify large yields falls given pricing is highly stretched, even …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economic growth will remain weak Data released today confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labour market is cooling. We are …
Price pressures in the Kingdom starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in June to 2.1% y/y in July, its weakest pace since February. As we flagged in a recent Focus, we think that inflation will continue to gradually …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Strength in Q2 won’t last The unexpectedly strong 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in June (consensus and CE forecast 0.1%) and 0.3% q/q gain in Q2 are more likely to be due to a temporary …
Rents will continue to rise faster than house prices The still tight rental market and softening in housing activity recorded by the RICS survey in July implies that rents will continue to rise faster than house prices for another year or so. The fall …
The threat to India’s stock market from US tariffs is sizeable, and we suspect that it could fall a lot further if they are implemented as currently proposed. And in fact, we think there are enough headwinds for India’s equities that they’ll underperform …
RBA will shrug off the slight fall in the jobless rate The tick down in the unemployment rate in July is likely to keep the RBA on sidelines at its next meeting in September, but we still think the Bank will ultimately loosen policy a bit further than …
Overview – Tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation so far, but we still expect the impact to gradually build. In the US, combined with the crackdown on immigration, tariffs should keep core inflation above 3% well into 2026. In the rest of the …
13th August 2025
Economy continues to cool in Q2 The slowdown in GDP growth in Russia to 1.1% y/y in Q2 suggests that the economy may have narrowly avoided a technical recession, but the economy is clearly struggling amidst imbalances that have built up due to the war …
Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the right-wing opposition candidates – as seems likely – …
June’s activity data suggest that, after a sluggish start to the year, South Africa’s economic recovery picked up in the second quarter, with GDP likely to have expanded by 0.8-1.0% q/q. And we think tailwinds from low inflation, looser monetary policy …
Mexico’s exports of AI-related products to the US have surged and now rival its key auto exports. While there may be a degree of tariff front-running at play, the boom in US data centre investment appears to be more important. This will help to cushion …
With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector still needs a pricing reset that will see buyers and …
We think the Riksbank is likely to be in wait-and-see mode when it meets next week and will keep its policy rate at 2%. While some of the economic data were underwhelming in the second quarter, they were not bad enough to justify another rate cut at this …
Growth in government bond issuance won’t last There was a small pick-up in overall credit growth in China’s economy in July, as a result of a further surge in government borrowing. But bank loan growth has continued to slow, suggesting that private sector …
The near-term outlook for China’s equities could be quite positive, despite the apparent headwinds. Today was a good day for China’s stocks, especially offshore, with the Hang Seng up over 2% and outperforming most others. But, the market still has a lot …
Polish economy outperforming amid tariff storms The 0.8% q/q growth in the Polish economy in Q2 was a bit weaker than consensus expectations, but still confirms that the economy maintained solid momentum last quarter and supports our view that Poland will …
Very tight supply, looser lending criteria and our forecast for further falls in mortgage rates provide scope for house prices in the capital to rise by more than elsewhere over the next few years. After a period of outperformance between 2010 and 2016, …
BoT cuts rate, further easing to come Thailand’s central bank (BoT) cut interest rates by 25bps today to 1.50%, and its dovish commentary supports our view that further easing is likely in the coming months. The decision was anticipated by 23 of the 28 …
The RBNZ is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on August 20 th . Although inflation is set to remain in the upper half of the Bank’s 1-3% target band in the near-term, we suspect the Committee will be more concerned about timely …
Wage growth will moderate towards 3% While wage growth was a touch stronger last quarter than the RBA had expected, we think it will moderate again before long and won’t prevent the Bank from easing policy much further. The 0.8% q/q rise in the wage price …
Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate in September. However, the “twist steepening” of the US …
12th August 2025
President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the members will ultimately limit how far political and …
Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in the coming years, but increased issuance by …
Solid tourism flows and a pick-up in consumer spending growth mean we believe both Rome and Milan prime retail rents will continue to outpace the euro-zone average over the next couple of years. While Milan prime retail rents held steady in Q2, rents in …
While the US jobs data captured the spotlight recently, the weakening of labour markets in most advanced economies has received less attention. Softer labour demand should dampen wage and price pressures in Europe and Canada but not in the US, where the …
Decent rental growth expectations and a narrowing risk premium imply that industrial is only marginally overvalued, despite an historically narrow gap between industrial yields and alternative asset yields. In turn, that implies industrial yields can …
Our new CE UK Unemployment Proxy extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of labour market slack and suggests that the labour market has loosened further than the Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment rate implies. Given the well-known issues …
Our UK Labour Market Indicators extract the overall signal from a range of measures of employment growth, unemployment and labour market slack. This dashboard was last updated on 12th August 2025. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying …
Another narrative shift for the Fed There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in the core PCE …
Inflation falls, but rate cuts unlikely before the end of the year The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.2% y/y in July, won’t change the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting in September, where interest rates will be left unchanged. But it lends …
The Egyptian pound has strengthened so far this year against the dollar, but by most measures the currency looks competitive. This will provide a boost to GDP growth over the coming years and reduce the risks posed by the current account deficit. After …
We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. Long-dated Swiss and German government bonds, once seemingly tightly linked, have …
Three years into his six-year term, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has passed key reforms to improve the country’s business environment and infrastructure. However, worries about corruption persist due to the abolition of a key national …
Inflation at eight-year low opens door to further rate cuts The larger-than-expected fall in India’s headline inflation rate in July, to an eight-year low, raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further this year. But with inflation set to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour demand still cooling, but at a slower pace The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only …
The RBA endorsed market expectations of further easing when it lowered the cash today and we think the Bank will ultimately slash rates to 2.85%. The Bank’s decision to lower the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.6% was correctly anticipated by all 40 analysts …
RBA will cut rates below 3% by mid-2026 The RBA endorsed market expectations of further easing when it lowered the cash today and we think the Bank will ultimately slash rates to 2.85%. The Bank’s decision to lower the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.6% was …
Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies for consumer goods. There is little indication that price …
11th August 2025
Weak Chinese LNG demand has been a striking feature of the LNG market in 2025, and we suspect demand will remain soft into next year. Given China is the world’s largest buyer of LNG, weaker Chinese demand will weigh significantly on the strength of global …
A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’ future earnings. But things might not play out that way. …
The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could ultimately result in an easing of some sanctions, providing …
Housing market on steadier footing Beginning with the good news, local real estate board data show that sales in four of Canada’s “early releaser” cities rose by 9% m/m in July, including a bumper 13% rise in Toronto. That gain points to a 6% rise in …
8th August 2025
The dollar has continued to edge lower in the wake of last week’s payrolls shock and a weak ISM reading this week as US interest expectations adjust lower. Given the extent of that adjustment – money markets now discount ~125bp of rate cuts over the …
