Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this... 13th March 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2024) The news that the economy expanded by 0.2% m/m in January (consensus and CE forecast 0.2% m/m) suggests the UK economy may already have moved out of recession and implies there is some upside to our... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
US Economics Focus Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi... 12th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The second consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in February leaves Fed officials some way from attaining the “greater confidence” needed to begin cutting interest rates. The annual rate of core... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates 19th March 2024, 8:00AM GMT Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implicati
UK Economics Update April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (February 2024) February’s inflation data from Norway strengthen our conviction that Norges Bank will cut interest rates much sooner than its forecasts suggest. 11th March 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q4 Second Estimate) While the small rise in Q4 GDP should be followed by a renewed contraction this quarter, we doubt this will prevent the BoJ from ending negative interest rates by the of next month. 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem leaves the door open for a June cut Governor Tiff Macklem dropped a hint this week that the Bank of Canada may be ready to cut rates by June. There was little in the data to dissuade the Bank, with unemployment rising and bankruptcies... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Revisiting the link between US labour and stock markets Today’s favourable reaction in financial markets to February’s US Employment Report probably reflects the inflation-friendly news of softer-than-expected growth in average hourly earnings amid mixed... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2024) The Bank of Canada will be relieved to see renewed labour market slack putting downward pressure on wage growth. While the Bank will need to see wage growth soften further before it pivots to rate... 8th March 2024 · 2 mins read
