US Economic Outlook Fed to cut rates as core inflation normalises We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.1% this year to only 0.8% in 2024, with the economy still likely to experience a near recession around the end of this year. Core inflation will continue to fall... 29th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly On the cusp of recession despite surging population The recent acceleration in immigration may not be enough to keep the economy afloat, with the latest data and surveys pointing to an increased chance that GDP will contract over the rest of the year. 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Revisions leave economic landscape unchanged The comprehensive revisions to the GDP data did not make a significant change to the macroeconomic story, with the real economy still 6.1% larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the discrepancy... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure on the pound to persist We think the markets are wrong to expect the Fed to keep interest rates at their peak for almost as long as the Bank of England. If so, then the recent downward pressure on the pound from the decline... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy deficit projections: worry but don’t panic The Italian government’s decision to raise its deficit targets suggests it is trying to get away with as little fiscal tightening as possible. With EU fiscal rules set to come back into force next... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Aug. 2023) The drag from higher interest rates on bank lending grew further in August, particularly in the housing market. Although interest rates have probably peaked at 5.25%, this effect will intensify as the... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2023 Final) The final Q2 2023 GDP data release shows that the economy was a bit more resilient in the first half of this year than we previously thought. But other indicators suggest this is now fading. We still... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ Board members starting to call for tighter policy The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting showed a lively debate about the outlook for prices and monetary policy. While many Board members believe that the Bank will have to keep policy loose... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to tighten policy as upside risks dominate Data released this week have been a mixed bag, which means that the RBA's policy decision next week will once again come down to the wire. With job vacancies falling and household cash flows starting... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Labour Market (Aug. 23) 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar’s “stronger for longer” rally may run out of road The US dollar’s record run of 10 consecutive weekly gains has brought it to its strongest level since last December, and prompted renewed talk of FX intervention in Asia. We think that market... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn in global trade set to deepen further Global goods trade fell at its fastest pace since the pandemic in July and the timelier trade and survey data point to further declines in August and September. What’s more, given that we still expect... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
