UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in April suggests that higher interest rates are not yet taking a toll on spending. While the worst of the declines in retail sales volumes are in the past... 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Electricity will become a drag on inflation next year Electricity inflation will become the highest since the 1980s this year, but with generation costs having plunged, we’ve pencilled in a big drop next year. Those movements probably won’t affect... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth too low to sustain higher inflation There’s little reason to expect above-target inflation to be sustained in Japan. Wage growth remains far below the levels seen in other developed economies and remains far too low to generate second... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 23) Coupled with rising unemployment and lukewarm wage growth, the weakness in retail sales in April supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done hiking interest rates. 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (May. 2023) Tokyo inflation fell to 3.2% in May largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and energy ticked up due to faster gains in “core” goods prices. We still expect... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Revising up our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield Higher risk premia on sterling-denominated assets, which coincided with last September’s disastrous “mini-budget”, have typically long since evaporated. The recent increase in Gilt yields – to levels... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Targeted migration could help solve labour shortages While it is a hot political potato, well targeted migration could be one part of the solution to the UK’s labour shortages problem. That could help inflation and interest rates be lower than otherwise... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling impasse likely to drag on into early June The debt ceiling stand-off will probably now drag on into early June, setting up the prospect of a near-default before a bipartisan bill is finally passed by Congress, possibly only after a more... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend continues We estimate that employment growth continued to trend gradually lower in May with a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls. Although the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, the report should also... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) The downward revision to Germany’s Q1 GDP means that the country has fallen into a technical recession and that euro-zone GDP probably stagnated in Q1 rather than expanding by 0.1% q/q. We expect... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Portland, San Francisco and Seattle off to a bad start Metro level data for Q1 2023 showed the slowdown in occupier demand was widespread, with no market consistently outperforming across the sectors in terms of absorption. While office and industrial... 24th May 2023 · 6 mins read
