Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 24) 29th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2024) The solid 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in March suggests that competition among buyers for the limited number of second-hand homes on the market remains strong. We expect that to continue for the... 28th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mission (almost) accomplished The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting were, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2024) Headline and core durable goods both did better than we expected in April, suggesting that the earlier decline in corporate borrowing costs may be feeding through. Nonetheless, with growth in... 24th May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economic tailwind for the election winner While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than our forecast for a 0.5% m/m fall and the consensus forecast for a 0.4% m/m decline as the unusually wet weather discouraging... 24th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will thwart further policy tightening The recent sharp slowdown in underlying inflation isn't inconsistent with the Bank of Japan's view that most of the previous strength in inflation was driven by an import cost that is now fading... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker consumption would lift risk of earlier rate cut Whereas the Reserve Bank of Australia expects the household savings rate to rise over the course of this year, we think that households will lift real consumption alongside a likely rebound in real... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs offer some better news on services price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies has continued to gain momentum in Q2. And central banks may take comfort in the fact that services price pressures seem to be easing... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Migration is preventing the supply of labour from shrinking Putting the politics aside, the high number of migrants coming to the UK for work is the main reason why the number of people willing and able to work isn’t shrinking. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
