US Personal Income & Spending (Jul. 2026), GDP (Q2 2026, 2nd est.) & Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 2026)
The slightly above-target-consistent rise in the core PCE deflator in July won’t be enough to convince the Fed that they’ll need to hike rates as soon as September. But with the annual rate still at 3.3% and given our relatively upbeat forecast for growth and the labour market, it remains a matter of when – not if – rates are raised. In our view, that is a 25bp hike in December, followed by another early next year.
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