We expect the current economic expansion to continue for the next year or two, by which time it will be the longest on record. But all expansions come to an end, and the rise in interest rates we expect over the next few years will push the economy into a mild recession before the decade is out. Tax cuts might temporarily boost GDP growth and prolong the economic cycle but, assuming they are passed early next year, growth would probably begin to falter in 2019.
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