The drop back in retail sales in September was driven partly by a price-related drop in gasoline sales, but the fact that underlying control group retail sales were unchanged provides another clear sign that consumption growth is slowing. We think real consumption rose by 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, down from a 4.6% increase in the second, with GDP growth slowing to 1.5% annualised, from 2.0%.
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