Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows

Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our forecasts are based on the assumption of no meaningful changes in government policy. But a Donald Trump victory in this November’s presidential election could usher in a new trade war and restrictions on immigration, both of which might lead to a resurgence in inflation.