Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.)

Real consumption is on course for solid growth of 3.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the income and spending data show that it stalled in November. The soft durable goods orders data for last month provide further evidence that the economy lost momentum. Overall, we estimate that GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised in the fourth quarter and continue to expect a mild recession next year.

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