The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy is going through a soft patch. But given the strength of the recent inflation data, we now expect the RBI to keep rates on hold until April. For India, the direct impact of a 10% universal tariff during Trump’s second term would be small. Trump has also been critical of India’s tariff regime, but if he were to specifically target countries with the largest trade imbalances with the US, India would be some way down that list.
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