The US election and market implications for EMs

We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president Trump is elected, we would expect an initial adverse reaction in EM markets: we think Treasury yields and the US dollar would rise, which would probably weigh on EM assets. Over the medium term, we think the impact on EM markets would primarily depend on the extent to which Trump implemented his policy proposals.