Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls

The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much impact on the dollar despite the sizable change in election odds. Elsewhere, the euro has ended the week flat against the dollar ahead of the first round of the French legislative elections that will take place this weekend. As we noted here, our central scenario is that the election will not have a major impact on the euro. However, a strong showing by the left-wing coalition or the far-right National Rally in the first round that puts them on track to win an absolute majority in congress is a downside risk for the euro.