Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026)
The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP growth will slow slightly in Q2 and Q3. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for longer than we assume, a mild recession is possible.
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