The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a much larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its main policy rate, to 6.00%. We will firm up new interest rate forecasts after Governor Glapinski’s press conference (due on Thursday), but the size of today’s move suggests to us that there may be a pause in the easing cycle at the next meeting in October and we think that further rate cuts after that will probably be more gradual.
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