NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024

Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core inflation will remain above the central bank’s target until 2025 and, as a result, there is not much scope for monetary easing this year. We are sticking with our forecast for 100bp of rate cuts by end-2024.

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