The huge increase in exports in January was in line with the timely advance US data released last week and implies US importers looked to front-run tariffs ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office. This surge, along with the 30-day postponement of a 25% tariff on most goods imports from Canada in February and temporary carveouts for the auto sector this month, mean net trade should have made a large, positive contribution to GDP growth in the first quarter. Nonetheless, with a 25% tariff now in place on most goods imports from Canada, the outlook for exporters this year is poor.
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