Despite the weak news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the global outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will follow the ECB’s lead and cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next Thursday. Our forecast is that rates will continue to be cut gradually, but that they will fall to 3.50% in early 2026 rather than to the low of 3.75-4.00% investors expect.
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, ECB and Fed policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 19th December. (Register here.)
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