Here comes the slowdown

The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2, its economy fell into a technical recession in Q3. Oil production problems, foreign currency shortages and recent flooding are hindering Nigeria. And balance of payments strains are weighing heavily on Ghana. At the same time, nearly all economies are contending with tight fiscal policy as governments try to tackle debt problems and rising interest rates as central banks tame inflation. All of that, coming alongside the deteriorating global backdrop and falling commodity prices, underpins our non-consensus view that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will slow in 2023. Most analysts anticipate a pick up in growth.