Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to call in the IMF? Given that Brazil’s growing debt burden is denominated overwhelmingly in local currency there is little need for the foreign currency financing that an IMF bailout would provide. Instead, the main... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes big strides in first 100 days but work still to do President Mauricio Macri’s first 100 days in office have seen an impressive range of measures to put Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position on a more sustainable footing. By any reasonable... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chilean economy means rate hikes will be gradual The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 3.50% for the third consecutive month reinforces our view that the weakness of the economy will ensure the pace of further... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five things you wanted to know about Brazil (but were too afraid to ask) It’s becoming increasingly difficult to keep tabs on the deepening crisis in Brazil. How much of it is due to political problems? How much is economic? And what should investors watch for as events... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates, but the tightening cycle has further to run The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% is unlikely to mark the end of the tightening cycle and we expect further rate hikes over the coming months. 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s political crisis takes dramatic turn Brazil’s financial markets rallied after news broke last week that former President Lula had been detained (and later released) in relation to the ongoing corruption probe at Petrobras. But this... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How alarming is the latest collapse in Brazil’s PMI? The collapse in Brazil’s Composite Manufacturing and Services PMI in February has grabbed plenty of headlines but it’s notable that it has not been repeated in other (more reliable) business surveys... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers step in to defend currencies Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia this month responded to the sharp falls in their currencies by hiking interest rates and stepping up intervention in foreign exchange markets. These moves appear to... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economic recovery hits its stride The surge in Peruvian GDP growth in the final quarter of 2015 was partly due to the temporary boost from the opening of a new copper mine. Nonetheless, the wider economic recovery appears to be going... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: anatomy of a budget meltdown We estimate that only one-sixth of the jump in Brazil’s budget deficit over the past two years has been due to a drop in tax receipts. Instead, the bulk (five-sixths) has been due to a rise in... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economic measures too little too late The move by Venezuelan policymakers to devalue the official exchange rates and raise fuel prices will help to ease the pressure on the public finances, but the measures fall chronically short of what... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico responds to market turmoil Expectations of lower inflation have probably played only a minor role in the fall in Treasury inflation compensation – the gap between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes again as inflationary pressures build, Chile holds The Peruvian central bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp for the third consecutive month, to 4.25%, as well as the more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement, point to concerns that... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Zika virus unlikely to have major economic impact The Zika virus has hit the headlines in recent weeks due to its rapid spread across Latin America and the suspected link with thousands of cases of serious birth defects in Brazil. But, while it is... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt offer encouraging, but more work still to do Argentina’s debt proposal to US holdout creditors is an encouraging development, but there are still a number of hurdles to overcome in order for the government to return to global capital markets. 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Commodities collapse triggers fresh rout Financial markets in Latin America have had a torrid start to this year. The renewed falls in commodity prices have been the main factor behind the latest falls in equities and currencies in the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
