Latin America Economics Update When will unemployment in Brazil stabilise? The various forecasts circulating of the GDP growth rate needed to stabilize unemployment in Brazil tend to miss the important point that productivity growth is typically faster in the early stages of... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian interest rates on hold, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold once again at 4.25% and, while the economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months, stubbornly above-target inflation means the next move in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions With Brazil returning from carnival, thoughts are shifting back to President Temer’s domestic policy agenda and, in particular, the prospects for planned pensions reform over the coming months that... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest business surveys The deterioration in Mexico’s IMEF survey since the start of this year looks alarming but there are reasons to believe that it is overstating the softness in the real economy. Meanwhile, the incoming... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: 2016 likely to be as good as it gets for the economy Peru’s economy is likely to weaken in 2017 as the one-off boost from a surge in copper production fades and a gradual tightening of policy weighs on the non-mining sector. After expanding by 3.9% in... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New (non-consensus) forecasts for Brazil Inflation in Brazil has fallen more quickly than even we had anticipated and, as such, we have pencilled in additional cuts to interest rates this year. We now expect the Selic to fall to 9.00% by end... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US… Changes to US trade statistics that are apparently being considered by the Trump administration would double Mexico’s trade surplus with the US as reported by the US Census Bureau, from $60bn to... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to continue falling sharply The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic interest rate by 75bp to 12.25% maintained an explicit easing bias but gave little away in terms of the future pace of... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained The recent strength of the Argentine peso, which has been the best-performing currency in Latin America so far this month, has led some to suggest that the worst is over for the currency. However, the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile pauses easing cycle, but more rate cuts to come The decision by Chile’s central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 3.25% came as a bit of a surprise, but it only marks a pause in the easing cycle and we expect the policy rate to fall to 2.50%... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: promising noises on trade, but structural hurdles persist While Brazil’s government is talking a good game on trade, the reality remains that the economy is among the most closed in the world. This is due in large part to structural problems that previous... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown The plunge in Mexican consumer confidence to a record low in January has raised concerns that a much more severe economic slowdown than we currently expect is underway. But it remains to be seen if... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
