Latin America Economics Update Currencies take Yellen comments in their stride Currencies in Latin America have edged down against the dollar since Fed Chair Janet Yellen left the door open to a hike in US interest rates this year in her Jackson Hole speech, but the moves have... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia peace deal won't change near-term economic outlook According to media reports a final peace deal between the Colombian government and the FARC is likely to be announced later today at 6pm local time. This will be an historic milestone and should... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere The further narrowing of Brazil’s current account deficit in June has significantly reduced the vulnerability of the country’s financial markets to external shocks. Elsewhere, however, there is still... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru MPCs hint that tightening done, but hikes still likely Having left interest rates unchanged last night, the Chilean and Peruvian central banks both removed the reference to a tightening bias in their accompanying statements. However, with inflation likely... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains Given the extent of its rally over the past couple of months it’s difficult to make the case that the Brazilian real will now strengthen much further from here. But by the same token, we think there... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of financial stress as credit bubbles deflate Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that Latin America’s credit bubbles are gradually deflating and so far this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors. Non... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games Despite hopes to the contrary, the Rio Games are unlikely to provide much of a boost to Brazil’s economy. We expect the country’s recession to ease further over the coming quarters, but this has... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am equities up despite softer commodities Equities in Latin America have outperformed those in the developed and wider emerging world so far this month, despite another dip in the prices of some global commodities. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico? In contrast to the prevailing view that tight credit conditions have been a constraint on Mexican growth, the debt ratio has actually increased at a reasonably sharp pace over the past five years... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes Upside risks to Colombian inflation over the next few months mean that we now expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25bp this month, to 7.75%, with a further hike in August likely... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon The decisions by the Chilean and Peruvian central banks to leave monetary policy unchanged didn’t come as a surprise as, for now, the inflation picture in both economies is improving. But with... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Peace deal will improve medium-term outlook The likely signing of a final peace agreement between the Colombian government and the country’s largest insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), will be an historic... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New Argentine GDP data look plausible…but point to recession Argentina’s statistics office has finally released a new GDP series based on a revised methodology and the good news is that it seems to paint a more accurate picture of economic activity on the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets recover after Brexit jolt Equities and currencies across Latin America tumbled alongside global markets in the immediate aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, but have since recovered some (and in a few cases... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update $50pb oil still leaves Venezuela in deep trouble The recovery in global oil prices, coupled with a possible restructuring of debt repayments to China will help to ease some of the pressure on Venezuela’s economy but does not alter the bigger picture... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
