Latin America Economics Update What would an escalation of US sanctions mean for Venezuela? The decision by the US Treasury to sanction Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro was on the more benign end of the spectrum of options reportedly under consideration and is unlikely to have much... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso likely to hold on to recent gains With the likelihood of major disruption to Mexico-US trade as a result of the renegotiation of NAFTA receding, we’re revising up our forecast for the Mexican peso and now expect it to end the year at... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia slows pace of easing, but significant rate cuts still likely The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to 25bp (from 50bp previously) suggests that policy might not be loosened as aggressively in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and the rising populist threat It’s still too soon to say how next year’s presidential elections in Brazil will pan out, but it’s not impossible to see how voters might return an economic populist to the Planalto. If so, there are... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela vote changes little, balance of payments strains intensify Yesterday’s referendum organised by Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly delivered a resounding defeat to the government, but the vote was unofficial and changes little in practice... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates to fall further than most expect in Chile & Peru Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 3.75%, and we expect at least one further quarter point reduction this year. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Chile left its policy... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging down our inflation & interest rate forecasts for Brazil Around half of the drop in Brazilian inflation over the past year has been driven by a collapse in food inflation, which is now close to bottoming out. But there is also growing evidence that the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: interest rates to fall further than most expect in 2018 We’ve argued for some time that the debate around monetary policy in Mexico would shift from tightening to loosening over the second half of this year. While the potential for market volatility in the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s new national inflation series The publication of a national consumer price index by Argentina’s statistics office is a further step towards overhauling its previously discredited inflation data. The short back series limits its... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to step up the pace of easing caught the consensus off guard, but supports our view that the policy rate will be cut by more than most expect this year. We... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: yield curve inversion doesn’t necessarily signal recession There is little evidence that the inversion of Mexico’s government bond yield curve means a recession is imminent. But it chimes with our view that economic growth is likely to soften over the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Brazil’s new inflation target The decision to lower Brazil’s inflation target from 4.5% currently to 4.25% in 2019 and 4.00% in 2020 is clearly a step in the right direction, but it’s worth bearing in mind that inflation targets... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery to continue The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q rise in Argentine GDP in Q1 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, which is likely to have been the key beneficiary of looser fiscal policy ahead of October’s... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Argentina sell-offs should be seen in context Financial markets in Brazil sold off yesterday following the decision by a Senate Committee to reject the government’s labour reform bill, while the stock market in Argentina has dropped today after... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would happen if Brazil fails to pass pension reform? If Brazil’s pension reforms were to collapse, the immediate impact on the economy would be determined by the knock-on effects to broader financial conditions. Over the longer term, we estimate that a... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
