Brazil’s government should continue to make headway in reforming a number of areas of the economy, but we think that the prospects of meaningful reform to the country’s pension system is now no more than 50:50. That would leave the bulk of the work in fixing the public finances to the next government, which will be elected in October 2018. And there is a growing possibility that a populist candidate, with little interest in major fiscal reforms, will win the presidency.
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