Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal squeeze & drought to weigh on growth Recently-released Q4 GDP data confirms that economic growth in Argentina softened at the end of last year, and we expect the economy to slow further over the course of 2018 as tighter fiscal policy... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia still open to rate cuts, Chile on hold for now Colombia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% last night, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing in the near term. Meanwhile, Chile’s central bank kept... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Piñera inherits strengthening economy Chile’s new president Sebastián Piñera is inheriting an economy with some cyclical momentum and we expect the recovery to continue over the course of this year. That said, growth over his four-year... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: legislative elections pave way for Duque Right and centre-right parties secured the most seats in yesterday’s legislative elections in Colombia, bolstering the chances of an Iván Duque presidency and dealing a blow to left-wing candidates –... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, but policy tightening on the horizon The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates by 25bp, to 2.75%, was accompanied by a statement that left the door open for one more cut in the easing cycle. But the big picture is that... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: living on borrowed time We don’t think that the apparent collapse of pension reform in Brazil will have much of a bearing on the economy’s performance over the next 6-12 months. Even so, the current pension system – and by... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with clients and local contacts in Bogotá. In this Update, we summarise four key takeaways from our visit. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy cycles nearing turning points Monetary policy cycles across the region are nearing turning points. In most cases this means that easing cycles are drawing to a close and, as markets start to consider the eventual onset of monetary... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to drift higher We expect inflation in Brazil to drift higher in the coming months, reaching just over 4% y/y by the end of this year. This won’t cause a major headache for policymakers but, despite the dovish tone... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: interest rates to be cut by less than most expect The decision by Argentina’s central bank to pause its easing cycle last night was accompanied by another cautious statement, reinforcing our view that interest rates will be cut by less than most... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities continue to diminish The volatility in global financial markets in recent weeks has brought concerns about EM external vulnerabilities back into the spotlight. However, with the notable exception of Argentina, economies... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru leaves rates on hold, but one more cut still likely Peru’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.00% yesterday as expected, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing. We think that a further drop in inflation in the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's industrial recovery remains on track 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain The decision by a Brazilian court to uphold the corruption conviction against former President Lula complicates his plans to run for the presidency this year but it doesn't finish them altogether. The... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
