Latin America Economics Update Nafta 2.0: what’s on the table? Following intensive talks last month, a preliminary new Nafta deal appears to be within reach. While it could still struggle to pass through legislatures in each country, the deal that looks to be on... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Time to turn bullish on Mexico? The outlook for Mexico’s economy is, despite worries over Nafta renegotiations and an Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency, brighter than many seem to think. We’ve revised up our forecasts and now... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the real? The sharp drop in the Brazilian real over the past month has, in our view, been driven more by local developments – including growing uncertainty over the outcome of October’s elections – than it has... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: BCRA turns hawkish, policy to stay tight Argentina’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 27.25% last night, but the statement accompanying the decision struck a notably more hawkish tone and suggested that the easing... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch – AMLO fears recede Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) appears to have made headway in allaying investors’ fears of a dramatic shift in policy if he wins Mexico’s presidential election in July. But... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, easing cycle probably over Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75% last night and, while the statement gave little away regarding future moves, we think the easing cycle is probably over. 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A disappointing Q1, but things should get better The raft of activity data released across Latin America in recent weeks suggests that the region’s economic recovery stalled in Q1. However, there are reasons to expect it to resume over the remainder... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Colombian investment to be temporary Colombia’s economic recovery has been held back by weak investment which appears to be a result of the recent slump in the property market. But this property downturn now seems to have passed its... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Brazilian markets after Lula ruling to be limited The ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to imprison left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) all but ends his bid for the presidency and throws the election race wide open. While markets are... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta hopes buoy Mexican peso and bond markets Despite the clashes between the US and China on trade, some more hopeful news on Nafta talks this month has supported the Mexican peso and local currency government bonds – particularly at the long... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Kuczynski resignation unlikely to disrupt recovery The resignation of Peruvian president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) is likely to be followed by a smooth and swift transition of power to Vice President Martín Vizcarra. And with financial conditions... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
