Latin America Economics Update No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets Financial conditions in Mexico have tightened over recent months, partly reflecting the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes in response to the falls in the peso. But there are no signs yet... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: private sector deleveraging has further to run Private sector debt deleveraging in Brazil gathered pace over the second half of last year. But while credit conditions will remain extremely tight this year, there are at least signs that broader... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the renegotiation of NAFTA: five key points President Trump’s intention to renegotiate NAFTA won’t have any immediate consequences for Mexico’s economy since the current agreement will remain in place until a reformed version is approved by all... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s 2016 meltdown among the worst on record Unconfirmed reports suggesting that Venezuelan GDP contracted by a staggering 19% in 2016 would mean that the country experienced the biggest one-year fall in output of any major EM in modern history... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Brazil’s economy in 2017 Market expectations have moved steadily towards our more dovish view on the outlook for inflation and interest rates in Brazil this year. But our forecast for growth in 2017 is still above the... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for the twelfth consecutive month, but with inflation still above target and the risks skewed to the upside, we expect... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects Mexico’s central bank has sufficient ammunition to intervene on an intermittent basis in FX markets to counter sharp selloffs in the peso. But the bigger picture is that interest rate hikes will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Whither the real? The key driver of the Brazilian real over the past couple of years has been fluctuations in the price of the country’s commodity exports. Accordingly, our view that the price of Brazil’s main... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates Fuel inflation is set to spike in Latin America over the next few months. In most countries, this will be more than offset by the disinflationary forces caused by the stabilisation of exchange rates... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina to return to growth next year The relatively shallow 0.2% q/q contraction in Argentine GDP in Q3 supports our view that the recession is close to an end. We think the economy will return to positive growth in 2017, but the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but hikes likely to resume in 2017 Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a tenth consecutive month last night, but with the risks to inflation firmly skewed to the upside, we expect policy tightening to resume... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
